Page plan · 14 pages

Written for: utility planners and strategy teams

1. 1

   Where heat pump adoption goes next: a utility strategy

   • This strategy looks at where heat pump adoption goes next for a regional utility.
   • It is written for utility planners and strategy teams.
   • It covers where adoption stands, where it can grow, and what the utility should do.
   • It closes with a roadmap, key risks and decisions for the board.
2. 2

   The case in brief: strong in warm regions, thin in cold ones

   • Heat pumps are well established in warm regions but thin in cold ones.
   • Cold regions hold the largest untapped heating load, still served mostly by gas and other fuels.
   • Growth there depends on cold-climate equipment, supportive policy and manageable winter peaks.
   • The utility's programmes should match each market's maturity.
3. 3

   How national heat pump use has grown

   • National heat pump use has grown over recent decades, led by warmer regions.
   • Growth has come from new construction and from replacing aging electric heating and cooling equipment.
   • Ductless mini-splits add a smaller but distinct route into homes without ductwork.
   • Past growth sets the baseline for the scenario later in this document.
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   Homes heated mainly by heat pumps, by climate region

   • Mixed-humid homes lead with 6.98 million ducted heat pumps as main heating equipment in 2020.
   • Hot-humid follows with 6.14 million ducted units.
   • Very-cold/Cold has 1.36 million ducted units, and Marine has just 0.46 million.
   • Ductless mini-splits are small everywhere, from 0.16 to 0.35 million homes per region.

   Column chart: Homes using a heat pump as main heating equipment, by climate region, 2020. Source: 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey, Table HC6.6: Space heating in U.S. homes, by climate region · checked 2026-10-10

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   Mature markets in hot-humid and mixed-humid regions

   • Hot-humid and mixed-humid regions are mature markets, with ducted heat pumps well established.
   • Together they hold about 13 million ducted heat pump homes in 2020, per the survey figures.
   • Growth here comes mainly from replacing worn equipment, not from first-time adoption.
   • Utility programmes can focus on efficiency upgrades and demand management.
6. 6

   Cold-climate regions: gas still heats most homes

   • Natural gas is the main heating fuel in 27.24 million very-cold and cold climate homes.
   • Electricity is next at 7.7 million homes.
   • Fuel oil or kerosene heats 3.31 million homes and propane 2.93 million.
   • Wood heats 1.13 million homes, the smallest group shown.

   Bar chart: Main heating fuel in very-cold and cold climate homes, 2020. Source: 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey, Table HC6.6: Space heating in U.S. homes, by climate region · checked 2026-10-10

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   Emerging markets in dry and marine climates

   • Mixed-dry/Hot-dry and Marine regions have smaller heat pump bases, at 1.2 and 0.46 million ducted homes.
   • Mild winters make heat pumps technically well suited to these climates.
   • Ductless units are a modest but visible share, at 0.16 million homes in each region.
   • These markets can grow faster from a low base with targeted offers.
8. 8

   Dual-fuel hybrids: a heat pump with a gas backup

   • A dual-fuel hybrid pairs an electric heat pump with a gas furnace as backup.
   • The heat pump carries most of the heating season, and gas covers the coldest hours.
   • Hybrids can lower winter peak demand compared with all-electric heating.
   • They offer a lower-risk first step for customers in gas-heated cold regions.
9. 9

   A policy-driven adoption scenario to 2035

   • The scenario assumes supportive policy such as incentives and efficiency standards.
   • Adoption is projected to 2035 as a planning case, not a forecast.
   • Illustrative: heat pumps reach 30% of cold-region replacements by 2035 (illustrative).
   • Planners should test the scenario against slower and faster cases.
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    Priorities for the utility's programmes

    • Prioritize replacement moments, when a failing furnace or air conditioner creates a decision.
    • Offer incentives that favor cold-climate and hybrid systems in gas-heated regions.
    • Support installer training and contractor networks.
    • Use time-varying rates and controls to keep winter peaks manageable.
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    Roadmap from pilot programmes to scale

    • Start with pilot programmes in a few service areas to test offers and measure results.
    • Use pilot data to refine incentives, rates and installer requirements.
    • Expand to the full territory in stages as the evidence builds.
    • Review progress each year against the adoption scenario.
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    Risks: winter peaks, installer supply, customer cost

    • Winter peaks could rise sharply if heating electrifies without load management.
    • Limited installer supply could slow adoption and raise prices.
    • Upfront customer cost remains a barrier, especially for lower-income households.
    • Policy changes could shift the pace of adoption.
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    Decisions for the board

    • Approve a staged programme, beginning with pilots in selected regions.
    • Set a budget for incentives, installer training and rate design.
    • Endorse a winter peak management approach before adoption scales.
    • Agree on the metrics and review schedule for tracking progress.
14. 14

    Appendix: notes on the survey data and definitions

    • Figures come from the 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey, Table HC6.6, from EIA.
    • Values are in millions of homes, grouped by climate region.
    • Charts show main heating equipment or fuel, not every heat pump in use.
    • Survey estimates carry sampling uncertainty, so small differences should be read with care.