Page plan · 15 pages

Written for: Trade analysts and policy staff

1. 1

   Residential heat pumps in global trade

   • This briefing covers residential heat pumps as a traded product.
   • It is written for trade analysts and policy staff.
   • We follow how units are counted, where they move, and how policy shapes flows.
   • We close with the outlook and the indicators worth tracking.
2. 2

   Briefing route: counting, flows, policy, outlook

   • The briefing has four parts: counting, flows, policy and outlook.
   • Counting explains what the headline statistics actually measure.
   • Flows covers production, exports and the main buying markets.
   • Policy and outlook cover subsidies, tariffs, risks and scenarios to 2030.
3. 3

   How heat pump trade and sales statistics are counted

   • Sales statistics count units installed or sold in a market; trade statistics count goods crossing borders.
   • The two series can differ because of stock, timing and re-exports.
   • Customs codes may group heat pumps with other equipment, which blurs trade data.
   • Air-source, ground-source and hot-water units are often counted differently.
   • Analysts should check each source's definition before comparing figures.
4. 4

   How many heat pumps ship each year

   • Annual shipment totals depend on which product types and regions are included.
   • Global figures are usually compiled from industry associations and market research.
   • Estimates from different sources rarely match exactly.
   • Treat any single global number as an approximation (illustrative: several million units a year).
5. 5

   European sales: a decade of growth, then two years of decline

   • Sales in 14 European countries rose from 0.7 million units in 2014 to 2.8 million in 2022.
   • Sales slipped to 2.6 million units in 2023.
   • They fell further to 2.0 million units in 2024.
   • The 2024 level is still nearly three times the 2014 level.
   • Source: European Heat Pump Association (EHPA), March 2025.

   Column chart: Heat pump sales in 14 European countries. Source: Pump it down: why heat pump sales dropped in 2024 (March 2025) · checked 2026-10-10

6. 6

   Where heat pumps are made and exported from

   • Heat pump production is concentrated in a limited set of manufacturing countries.
   • Large producers in Asia and Europe supply both home and export markets.
   • Many units are traded as finished products, while components move separately.
   • Export mix depends on the product type and the destination's standards.
7. 7

   The largest buying markets

   • The largest buying markets are those with strong heating needs and policy support.
   • Europe, North America and parts of East Asia are the major demand centers.
   • Demand follows building rules, energy prices and subsidy design.
   • Market size ranks can shift quickly when incentives change.
8. 8

   Price points and the product mix

   • Prices vary widely by product type, capacity and brand.
   • Air-to-water systems generally cost more than air-to-air units.
   • Installation cost often adds substantially to the purchase price.
   • Product mix shifts with local climate, existing heating systems and subsidies.
   • Price gaps between exporters and local makers shape import competition.
9. 9

   Subsidy changes and the 2024 sales swing

   • Germany sales fell by 209 thousand units from 2023 to 2024.
   • France fell by 173 thousand units over the same period.
   • The United Kingdom rose by 38 thousand units.
   • Subsidy changes and uncertainty were a key factor in the swings.
   • Source: European Heat Pump Association (EHPA), March 2025.

   Bar chart: Change in heat pump sales from 2023 to 2024. Source: Pump it down: why heat pump sales dropped in 2024 (March 2025) · checked 2026-10-10

10. 10

    Tariffs and trade-defence measures on imported units

    • Tariffs and trade-defence measures raise the landed cost of imported units.
    • Anti-dumping and anti-subsidy cases can target specific exporters.
    • Measures change sourcing decisions and push assembly toward local plants.
    • Analysts should track the product codes and rates covered by each measure.
11. 11

    Installer shortages as a brake on demand

    • A shortage of trained installers limits how many units can be fitted.
    • Slow installation capacity can hold back demand even when subsidies exist.
    • Training programs take time to expand the workforce.
    • Installer capacity is a policy lever as important as equipment trade.
12. 12

    Plans to build heat pumps closer to buyers

    • Manufacturers are planning to build heat pumps closer to their buyers.
    • Local production can reduce exposure to tariffs and shipping delays.
    • New plants need steady demand to justify investment.
    • Component supply chains often remain international even with local assembly.
13. 13

    Risks: gas prices, subsidy cuts and trade friction

    • Low gas prices weaken the running-cost case for heat pumps.
    • Subsidy cuts or sudden changes can cause sales swings, as in 2024.
    • Trade friction can raise prices and disrupt supply.
    • These risks can compound when they coincide.
14. 14

    Scenarios for heat pump trade to 2030

    • Scenarios for 2030 depend on policy, energy prices and trade rules.
    • A supportive case assumes stable subsidies and open trade.
    • A cautious case assumes weaker policy and more trade barriers.
    • Local manufacturing share would be higher in the protective case.
15. 15

    What trade analysts should watch next

    • Watch subsidy announcements in the major buying markets.
    • Track new trade-defence cases and tariff changes.
    • Monitor quarterly sales data against the 2024 baseline.
    • Follow installer workforce figures and new factory investment decisions.