Page plan · 15 pages

Written for: Policy analysts and journalists

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   Thirty years of US population change, 1990-2020

   • This briefing traces how the US population changed between the 1990 and 2020 censuses.
   • It is written for policy analysts and journalists who need reliable figures.
   • We cover growth, births and deaths, migration, aging and regional shifts.
   • We close with projections and what the trends mean for policy.
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   Census counts and CDC vital statistics behind this briefing

   • Population totals come from the decennial census counts of the US Census Bureau.
   • Births, deaths and life expectancy come from CDC vital statistics.
   • Census counts are taken every ten years; vital statistics are recorded annually.
   • Knowing each source's coverage and limits helps you quote the numbers correctly.
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   From 249 million to 331 million in four census counts

   • The resident population was 248.7 million in 1990.
   • It rose to 281.4 million in 2000 and 308.7 million in 2010.
   • The 2020 census counted 331.4 million residents.
   • That is a gain of about 82.7 million people over the thirty years.

   Column chart: US resident population at each census (millions). Source: Historical Apportionment Data (1910-2020), apportionment.csv · checked 2026-10-10

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   Periods of faster and slower growth

   • Growth was not even: each decade added a different number of people.
   • The 1990s added about 33 million (illustrative), more than the 2010s did.
   • Growth slowed in the 2010s after the 2008 recession and the drop in births.
   • Decade-to-decade comparisons show why one trend line can mislead.
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   Births and deaths year by year

   • Population change starts with two flows: births added and deaths subtracted.
   • Births exceed deaths every year, which is why natural increase stays positive.
   • The gap between them has narrowed as the population has aged.
   • Annual series show shifts that ten-year census counts hide.
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   Natural increase versus net migration

   • Population growth has two sources: natural increase and net international migration.
   • Natural increase has been the larger source in most years.
   • Net migration's share grows as natural increase shrinks.
   • Migration is more variable and responds to policy and the economy.
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   Fertility rates across three decades

   • The total fertility rate is the average number of children a woman would have over her lifetime.
   • US fertility has been near replacement level of about 2.1 in the early part of the period.
   • It has fallen since the late 2000s to well below replacement.
   • Lower fertility slows growth and makes the population older.
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   Women still outlive men, but the gap has narrowed

   • Women's life expectancy at birth rose from 78.8 years in 1990 to 81.2 in 2018.
   • Men's rose from 71.8 to 76.2 over the same period.
   • The gap narrowed from 7.0 years in 1990 to 5.0 in 2018.
   • Men's life expectancy dipped slightly between 2015 and 2018, from 76.3 to 76.2.

   Line chart: Life expectancy at birth by sex, 1990-2018 (years). Source: NCHS - Death rates and life expectancy at birth · checked 2026-10-10

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   A growing share of people aged 65 and over

   • The share of Americans aged 65 and over has been rising.
   • Aging baby boomers drive the increase.
   • A larger older population raises demand for Social Security and Medicare.
   • Fewer workers per retiree changes the fiscal outlook.
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    Moving to cities and suburbs

    • Most Americans live in metropolitan areas, and that share has grown.
    • Suburbs absorbed much of the growth in metro areas.
    • Many rural counties lost population as young adults left.
    • Journalists should check which definition of urban a source uses.
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    The South and West drew most of the growth

    • The South grew from 85.4 million in 1990 to 126.3 million in 2020.
    • The West rose from 52.8 million to 78.6 million.
    • The Northeast grew from 50.8 million to 57.6 million, and the Midwest from 59.7 million to 69.0 million.
    • The South added about 40.9 million, the most of any region.

    Column chart: Resident population by census region, 1990 and 2020 (millions). Source: Historical Apportionment Data (1910-2020), apportionment.csv · checked 2026-10-10

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    Comparison with peer countries

    • Comparing the US with peer countries puts its growth in context.
    • The US has grown faster than many other wealthy countries.
    • Immigration and somewhat higher fertility explain much of the difference.
    • Many peers are now aging faster or shrinking.
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    How projections are made

    • Projections start from the current population by age and sex.
    • They add assumptions about fertility, mortality and net migration.
    • Small changes in the migration assumption can move the long-run result a lot.
    • Projections are scenarios, not forecasts, and should be reported that way.
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    What the trends mean for policy

    • An aging population puts pressure on retirement and health programs.
    • Regional shifts change congressional apportionment and the Electoral College.
    • Growth in the South and West raises demand for housing and infrastructure.
    • Slower growth makes immigration policy more important to the labor force.
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    The numbers to carry away from this briefing

    • The US grew from 248.7 million to 331.4 million between 1990 and 2020.
    • The South and West drew most of the growth.
    • Women still outlive men, but the gap has narrowed.
    • The population is aging as fertility falls and migration matters more.